EFollowing Team GB’s velodrome success at the 2008 Olympics, campaigners and government ministers have confidently predicted Britain would become a nation of cyclists. There’s just one problem. In most cases, that didn’t happen.
Aside from the very concentrated surge in bicycle use during COVID-19, levels of cycle travel in the UK have remained largely stagnant for years, and that doesn’t seem to be changing.
Last December, Brompton reported the lowest annual sales of its folding bikes since 2021. Fewer existing bicycles will be purchased in 2024 than in any other year this century, according to statistics from the Cycling Association, the UK bicycle industry trade body.
“If you look at pedal cycle sales since 2010, there hasn’t been a year in which sales haven’t declined, apart from COVID-19. I always wonder why people in the industry aren’t more aware of this,” says Phillip Darnton, president of the Cycling Association.
But it is not a picture of unconditional gloom. London is experiencing an ongoing cycling boom, with almost 1.5 million journeys now taking place per day, 43% higher than in 2019. A few other places have seen an increase in bicycle use, although not as significantly.
Buried in this combination of statistics are some obvious lessons. To find this, it helps to first think about the different types of cyclists on the road.
Leisure riders – the legendary middle-aged pedalos who meander through the Surrey Hills or Peak District on DayGlo Lycra, rain or shine – are just a small part of what makes cycling a nation.
Others include people who ride bicycles every day for transportation, and experts agree that these people will only cycle when they feel safe. This requires long-term investments in infrastructure. Finally, cycling is changing at a rapid pace with the advent of electric bikes and non-stop rental networks like Lime. But some say the government has not yet caught up.
Adam Tranter, who runs a PR agency that works with cycling brands and was previously walking and cycling commissioner for the West Midlands, points out that luxury bike sales are gradually shifting from traditional road bikes to so-called gravel bikes designed for off-road use and sophisticated indoor trainers that pit people against each other virtually.
“All of this is code for people who say, ‘I don’t like being near cars because I don’t feel safe,’” he says. “Whichever way you look at it, you can’t reach the potential of cycling without making it much safer and more comfortable. It all comes down to this basic fact.”
While the Westminster government seesawed between the relative enthusiasm for cycling and the transport culture wars of the Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer era and the machinations of Rishi Sunak, London enjoyed more than two decades of support under Ken Livingstone, Johnson and mayor Sadiq Khan.
“For things to really change, we need strong, consistent political leadership over a sustained period of time,” says one senior figure in cycle policy. “If we make consistent investments, we can also attract and retain the talent and skills needed to run cycling operations in places as old and dense as London – these people are not easy to find.”
Of course, London has a concentrated population and there are also factors that discourage driving, including congestion charges and low-traffic regional networks in many boroughs.
As anyone who has been to London recently will know, in addition to the size of the cycling population, the type is also changing, with more people riding electric-assist bikes, including rental versions such as the ubiquitous Lime models.
Inside is a unique kind of machine. There are blazingly fast electric contraptions, often powered by massive rear-wheel hub motors and zip-tied collections of batteries, many of which are ridden by gig economy riders for delivery companies. This is not an e-bike strictly regulated by law. In fact, it is a form of electric motorcycle that is completely illegal, but police rarely challenge it.
“The image problem for cycling is huge because almost everyone confuses the two,” says Tranter. “We could solve this problem somewhat overnight by getting delivery companies to check, for example, by monitoring passenger speeds, but I think we’re better off just moaning about it.”
This new world of technology means sales of traditional bicycles are falling across Europe. The difference is that in many other countries the balance is covered by legal e-bike sales.
“This year we will sell more than 5 million electric bikes in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Spain. We will be lucky to sell 150,000 here,” Darnton said.
Much of this depends on other countries providing safer road conditions for cycling and subsidies to help people buy sometimes expensive e-bikes. These plans have so far only applied to electric cars and motorcycles in the UK.
But beyond this, ebikes have an image problem, shaped by a mixture of personal experience and media coverage.
“For bike rentals, the problem is mainly one of sheer popularity,” says Tranter. “As the numbers grow, so does the number of idiots, just like any other mode of transport. But we have come to see the popularity of bikes as a problem that needs to be solved rather than a great success story for active mobility.”
In addition, there are cases of illegal electric bicycles made in China being used almost without permission. These bikes are often dangerously fast and, unlike legal models, can be equipped with surprisingly flammable batteries.
Darnton said: “People read and believe that e-bikes are dangerous and, increasingly, if your landlord says you can’t take an e-bike onto the property or your employer says you can’t park an e-bike in an underground car park, then you won’t be able to buy an e-bike.
"In London, if you ask anyone under 35 if they’re thinking of buying a bike, they’ll say, ‘Why? There’s a bike at the end of the road.’
He added: "Existential is a bit of a scary thing to say, but it’s true. If we can’t do what Europe is doing, what will happen to the UK cycling market will be the leisure markets – golf, tennis and badminton.”