UFC 326 is less than 24 hours away.
It all comes down to action this weekend (Saturday, March 7, 2026) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, former featherweight champion, Max HollowayCollision with former lightweight kingpin, Charles Oliveira“BMF” in a 155-pound showdown should be truly amazing.
MMAmania.com has a weekly series called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet we expect to hit big in “Sin City” once the dust settles. We’d also love to hear what our readers think (that’s you!). So let us know which UFC 326 betting locks you’re most confident in in the comments section below (check out the full UFC 326 odds here).
Summary of past events: I don’t think we can win this year. Brandon Moreno be defeated lonely cabana … And he certainly wasn’t. In fact, he was ruled (and hospitalized).
Now, let’s continue below.
I take Holloway’s moneyline at -220 this week, which isn’t cute (and at least Alexander Volkanovski agree with me).
Holloway excelled in his promotion to lightweight. His striking is as technical, accurate and unstoppable as always. Moreover, he comfortably sets the pace over five rounds. Oliveira, on the other hand, is rough and aggressive. Although he is risky when attempting a submission, his patterns are predictable. Holloway’s durability and combat IQ are his main strengths. In fact, he was only submitted once. And that was his Octagon debut. The math is simple to me: Oliveira’s only realistic path to victory is submission, and Holloway is ready to neutralize it while outboxing him from afar.
Holloway’s volume striking and cardio ability make him one of the hardest fighters to keep off the scorecards. Oliveira has strength and creativity, but overcommitment leaves a void. Holloway thrives against aggressive opponents who rely on chaos. He excels at controlling coverage, mixing paint, and forcing mistakes.
Simply put, Holloway is the safer, more technical fighter in this matchup.
Oliveira is a world-class submission artist, and if Holloway makes a critical mistake or underestimates the danger on the ground, the fight could be over with a tap. Additionally, Holloway could have a night out or suffer due to Oliveira’s unpredictability. You might not expect it, but the volatility of a player as fast and aggressive as Oliveira always carries risks.
Still, considering their style, Holloway’s current form at lightweight and his sneak power, taking Holloway’s -220 moneyline looks like one of the most reliable plays of UFC 326.