Abiy Ahmed: Meteoric rise of the man trying to remould Ethiopia – World

Son of poor villagers, a spy chief, and now the man behind the vertiginous attempts to reform Africa's fastest growing economy and heal wounds with Ethiopia's neighbors, Abiy Ahmed has seen an unpredictable and dangerous rise .

Another chapter was added to his remarkable story on Friday when he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Since becoming an Ethiopian prime minister in April 2018, the 43-year-old man has aggressively followed policies that have the potential to change his country's society and reshape the dynamics beyond its borders.

Just six months after his swearing in, Abiy made peace with his bitter enemy Eritrea, released dissidents from prison, apologized for the brutality of the state and welcomed armed groups in exile that his predecessors called "terrorists ".

More recently, he has resorted to developing his vision of the economy while laying the foundations for the elections currently scheduled for next May.

But analysts worry that their policies are, at the same time, too fast for the old political guard, and too little too late for the angry young people of the country, whose protests brought him to power.

Despite the challenges, Abiy's allies predict that his deep well of personal ambition will propel him to continue swinging big.

Tareq Sabt, a businessman and friend of Abiy, says that one of the first things that surprised him when they met was the impulse of the prime minister: "I always told my friends, when this guy comes to power, they will see many changes in Ethiopia. "

& # 39; Sleeping on the floor & # 39;

Born in the western city of Beshasha to a Muslim father and Christian mother, Abiy "grew up sleeping on the floor" in a house that lacked electricity and running water.

"We used to go to the river for water," he said in a broad radio interview with Sheger FM last month, adding that he didn't even see electricity or an asphalt road until seventh grade.

However, Abiy progressed rapidly through the power structures created by the ruling coalition, the Revolutionary Democratic Front of the Ethiopian People (EPRDF), after seizing power from the Derg military junta in 1991.

Fascinated with technology, he joined the army as a radio operator while still a teenager.

He became a lieutenant colonel before entering the government, first as a bureaucrat ─ he was the founding head of the cyber espionage team of Ethiopia, the Information Network Security Agency.

He then became a minister in the capital, Addis Ababa, and a party official in his home region of Oromia.

Enjoying the moment

The circumstances that led to Abiy's rise to high office date back to the end of 2015.

A government plan to expand the administrative boundaries of the capital in the surrounding region of Oromia was seen as a land grabbing that sparked protests led by the Oromo, the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia and the people of Amhara.

The states of emergency and mass arrests (typical tactics of the EPRDF) worked to quell the protests, but failed to address the underlying complaints.

When the then prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, abruptly resigned, many feared a power struggle within the EPRDF, or even a collapse of the coalition that would leave a dangerous void.

Instead, coalition member parties chose Abiy to become the first prime minister Oromo.

"He is the only one who could have saved the EPRDF," said Mohammed Ademo, a journalist who accompanied Abiy on his first visit to the great Ethiopian diaspora community in the United States last year.

"I think he is ready for this moment all his life."

As prime minister, Abiy has tried to shape events throughout the Horn of Africa, fueling criticism that he is assuming too much at once.

Beyond the rapprochement with Eritrea, for which he was cited for the Nobel, he has played a leading role in mediating the political crisis in Sudan and has also tried to revive the uncertain peace agreement of South Sudan.

However, if any of these initiatives will finally succeed it is an open question.

Even the agreement with Eritrea, which many see as Abiy’s characteristic achievement to date, has been undermined by the lack of tangible progress on critical issues such as border demarcation.

"Abiy has had real successes in foreign policy, but there has been a wrong optimism from the outside that he can transform the Horn of Africa," said James Barnett, an analyst specializing in East Africa at the American Enterprise Institute.

"The Horn is volatile. I am skeptical that a leader can undo decades of competition and distrust."

Murder offer

The immediate demands of Ethiopian politics may leave Abiy with no choice but to shift his approach in the coming months.

Holding credible elections for next May, the current timeline, is a daunting task, however, Abiy is eager to get the kind of victory that would give him a mandate with the general public.

First, it must deal with the formidable security challenges of Ethiopia.

Ethnic violence has been increasing in recent years, causing Ethiopia to register more internally displaced persons last year than any other country.

And last June, Abiy faced the greatest threat to his control of power when gunmen killed senior officials, including a prominent regional president and the army chief.

Abiy seems very aware of the danger he faces, and occasionally makes public reference to his own life's attempts, including a grenade attack at a rally only two months after taking office.

For now, as noted in the Sheger FM interview, he remains in control.

"There have been many attempts so far, but death did not want to come to me," he said. "Death moved away from me."