On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operations Roaring Lion and Operation Epic Fury, striking more than 500 Iranian military targets in one day. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has died. Iran’s missile capabilities fell by 90% in 10 days. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes every day, has become quiet. In six days, the price of oil rose from about $60 to $115 per barrel. Washington’s official justification was simple: Iran’s nuclear program posed an unacceptable threat. That’s reasonable enough. Excluding Iran, Iran is China’s single largest oil supplier, shipping 1.38 million barrels of cheap, sanctioned crude to Beijing every day.
Those details are worth sitting with and looking at.
Between 18 and 20 million barrels of oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz every day. We simultaneously serve Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar. The world faced a sudden supply shortage of about 15 million barrels a day when tanker operators anchored their vessels at the edge of the waterway rather than risk crossing. Kuwait declared force majeure on oil contracts. Gulf shipping insurance premiums have soared. Analysts stopped treating $200 per barrel as a fantasy and started treating it as a real scenario. There was no buffer left in the global oil market, which was only 1 to 2 million barrels per day before the war began.
For India the consequences were immediate and serious. India imports 88% of its oil, and nearly 40% of its crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices increase inflation, widen trade deficits, and slow economic growth. From fertilizers made from natural gas to diesel-powered trucks to shipping containers crossing oceans, every step of India’s food supply chain is subject to energy costs. There were no clean options in India. After watching and calculating, Press Release 3, a rule introduced after the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes that required Chinese investors to go through mandatory government approval process, was quietly revised on March 10, 2026. Electronics, semiconductor and capital goods manufacturing have now passed the 60-day accelerated track. Chinese shares of less than 10% will be automatically liquidated. The door India bolted shut in 2020 opened a little wider. With oil prices at $115 and supply chains disrupted globally, New Delhi has decided that strategic caution has a price tag it can no longer afford.
Iran was not the first to oppose Chinese energy supplies. On January 3, 2026, U.S. forces launched Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela, arresting Nicols Maduro and increasing U.S. oversight of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Venezuela supplied China with up to 746,000 barrels of heavy oil per day at discounted prices. After surgery, that number decreased by 74%. An American company took over production. Beijing protested and then became quiet. Before Venezuela, tariffs were imposed. President Trump has imposed tariffs of 20-145% on Chinese products starting in March 2025, directly targeting semiconductors, technology, and manufacturing. Three separate tasks. Three separate formal justifications. All of them have affected China’s energy supplies, trade relationships or economic partnerships.
However, in January and February 2026, China’s exports increased by almost 22% compared to the previous year. Semiconductor exports increased by 73%. Automobile exports increased by 67%. Trade with the European Union increased by 28%. Canada, Britain, France and Germany have all sent leaders to Beijing, calling China a stable and trustworthy partner, but Trump’s tariffs have left Washington feeling very different. The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling against a blanket tariff regime has already reduced tariff levels in several countries, including China.
The pressure on China was real. The cost was real. However, the results did not match the intent. The world that American foreign policy sought to build, a world where China was blockaded, isolated, and energy-starved, did not materialize. What was realized instead was China exporting more, diversifying faster, and drawing America’s oldest allies closer, while oil markets bled and the rest of the world quietly recalculated its positions.
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