Taliban at a crossroads – Newspaper

The Afghan Taliban seem to be again at a crossroads. They must decide on a future political strategy without losing too much of their militant strength. Until now, the Taliban leadership had been anticipating that the peace process would be a victory for them. In fact, they entered into talks with the United States with a sense of victory, and proved to be tough negotiators.

They were fully prepared to enter the streets of Kabul as a victorious "army," but President Donald Trump shattered his dream at the eleventh hour. [calling off][2] his "secret" meeting with a Taliban delegation in Camp David, which many believed would be the place for a peace agreement. This was perhaps the weakest moment of the Taliban leadership. They had been so close to the finish line.

Many feared that the peace process could fall apart. The Taliban approached all of their support channels, including in Moscow and Beijing, and most importantly in Islamabad; everyone advised them to return to the peace process. The council worked and the presidential elections in Afghanistan were no longer as bloody as before, indicating that the militia was ready to reduce the level of violence if peace talks resumed.

Apparently, the Taliban have not yet developed a post-peace agreement strategy in terms of how they will transform their war machine into a political asset. So far, they have been determined to capitalize on the withdrawal of foreign troops and to design a formula to share power with other interested parties in Afghanistan. They hoped they would easily negotiate an agreement and gain power, which would also allow them to take their fighters from rural areas to cities. However, political processes have their own dynamics.

Apparently, the Taliban have not yet developed a post-peace agreement strategy.

The Taliban delegation led by Mulá Baradar, who visited Islamabad recently, held some important meetings, indicating that the Taliban stance was softened. The delegation met with Prime Minister Imran Khan and Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, but the informed meeting with the US envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, was even more significant. A US official denied that these developments signaled the resumption of the peace process. It is clear that the United States itself wants to decide when the talks will resume.

It is not certain if they will resume from the point where they crumbled or if both parties will renegotiate specific terms. The United States can insist on a ceasefire and recognize the next administration in Kabul as a legitimate actor in the conflict. The Taliban will resist any change in the agreed draft. Can Pakistan urge them to renegotiate?

It could be Trump's deliberate attempt to pressure the Taliban, and for now, the effort has proved useful. However, the United States has limited options in Afghanistan. A unilateral withdrawal from the United States will also intensify the conflict on multiple internal fronts and encourage external actors to have powers. Although the status quo suits Kabul, this is not going to end the war. The only option left to the Afghan government is to seek a negotiated agreement with interested parties, including the Taliban.

The United States cannot continue using dilatory tactics to keep the Taliban under pressure. But Pakistan's position is extremely delicate because of what is happening in Kashmir, controlled by India, and seems willing to extend full support to the United States in the Afghan peace process. In return, Pakistan wants its ties to the United States to be standardized to consolidate its geoeconomic and strategic support while facing India. Immediate support is required to keep Kashmir in the global political conversation. If Trump continues to offer mediation, he will fulfill the purpose and generate pressure on India.

An idea shared by some political circles in Islamabad is that the zero tolerance approach exhibited by Pakistan against all the shadows of the militants has weakened the Indian argument of linking Pakistan with terrorism in international forums. India's economic, political and strategic profile is strong, and most nations want to do business with India, but Pakistan's new strategy of abandoning its previous Kashmir policy could frustrate it.

In retaliation, India could embark on a limited military adventure against Pakistan to harm the latter economically and politically. This perception could be based on fear, and Pakistan's cooperation with the United States in Afghanistan can prevent India from becoming too shameless.

Pakistan has its compulsions, but China is also following the situation in Afghanistan closely. The unilateral withdrawal of US troops will be a nightmare scenario for China, so it fully supports the peace process between the United States and the Taliban. China is not ready to assume any leadership role in resolving the conflict in Afghanistan, while also fearing that if the peace process collapses, the indirect effect will add to the Chinese problems in the contiguous province of Xinjiang.

The instability in Afghanistan could destabilize the region, thus affecting the China Belt and Road Initiative. But Chinese experts are more worried about CPEC. Any regional instability will harm the initiative and may force Pakistan to set its geostrategic priorities before the emerging regional geoeconomics.

China wants the United States to fulfill its peace mission in Afghanistan. In the worst case, China would prefer to use the regional platform, preferably the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to boost negotiations.

Prime Minister Imran Khan will visit China soon. In addition to addressing issues related to CPEC, he will discuss peace in Afghanistan with Chinese leaders. The prospects for a probable change of administration in Kabul and the attitude of the new dispensation towards the peace process can also be discussed. It seems that both will encourage the Afghan Taliban to follow the peace process in Afghanistan.

If the Taliban agree even a temporary ceasefire, it would be an excellent achievement for everyone. But the Taliban will have to face another challenge: to convince their field commanders about the victory they claimed after the first stage of the peace process. The Taliban have not yet lost much, but the fate of the militia will depend on their future plans.

The writer is a security analyst.

Posted in Dawn, October 6, 2019

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