ISLAMABAD: Inflation rose 11.4 percent year-on-year in September, the Pakistan Statistical Office (PBS) reported Wednesday.
Inflation, measured through the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased 0.77{7be40b84a6a43fc4fae13304fce9a2695859798abfc41afd127b9f8b21c5f9c5} during the previous month after PBS revised its calculation methodology. According to the new base year (2015-16), September inflation was 11.37 percent, compared to 10.49 percent in the previous month.
The change in the base year means that the price levels of the economy in the 2016 fiscal year will now be the basis against which all existing prices will be calculated to calculate the CPI.
For the previous base year of fiscal year 2008 that was used until two months ago, the key inflation index stands at 12.55pc for September, showing an increase of 0.92pc during the month of August.
According to the new base year, the lowest CPI was recorded in July at 8.4pc which grew to 11.37pc in September.
In addition to the overflow, PBS has also changed the weights assigned to various consumer items in the goods basket, and introduced a new price panel that will be obtained from urban and rural areas.
According to the data, the urban CPI covers 35 cities and 356 consumer items, while the rural one tracks 27 rural centers and 244 items. The first grew 11.6 percent year-on-year in September, while the second rose 11.1 percent.
The International Monetary Fund has estimated that Pakistan's inflation can increase up to 13 percent. However, the government estimate is around 11pc, which was already crossed in the outgoing month.
The core inflation rate was 8.8pc in September according to the new methodology, compared to 8.2pc. The central bank determines the key policy rate (which is currently at 13.25pc) based on the underlying inflation rate.
A more detailed analysis shows that food inflation in urban areas increased by 15{7be40b84a6a43fc4fae13304fce9a2695859798abfc41afd127b9f8b21c5f9c5} in September annually and 2{7be40b84a6a43fc4fae13304fce9a2695859798abfc41afd127b9f8b21c5f9c5} monthly. In rural areas, food inflation increased 15{7be40b84a6a43fc4fae13304fce9a2695859798abfc41afd127b9f8b21c5f9c5} annually and 1.8{7be40b84a6a43fc4fae13304fce9a2695859798abfc41afd127b9f8b21c5f9c5} monthly.
Similarly, non-food inflation in urban centers was recorded at 9.7 percent year-on-year, while in rural areas it was 8 percent.
In urban areas, foods that increased their price levels included: chicken (40.75pc), tomatoes (37.47pc), onion (32.31pc), fresh vegetables (12.84pc), eggs (9.76pc), potatoes (6.21 pcs ), cooking oil (4.68pc), vegetable ghee (4.18pc), engine fuel (3.88pc), sugar (3.78pc), daal masoor (2.54pc), mustard oil (1.75pc), pulse gram ( 1.44pc), wheat flour (1.29pc) and daal puree (1.01pc).
On the other hand, the articles that decreased in urban areas were fresh fruits (15.64pc) and wheat (0.3pc).
In rural areas, items that recorded an increase in inflation included tomatoes (35.4pc), onions (28.49pc), chicken (26.56pc), potatoes (18.18pc), fresh vegetables (10.96pc), eggs (9.79pc ), sugar (5.21pc), cooking oil (3.22pc), daal moong (2.81pc), vegetable ghee (2.51pc), mashed daal (2.35pc) and powdered milk (1.85pc).
Meanwhile, fresh fruits fell 20.6pc, 2.8pc fish, 1.72pc beans and 0.32pc wheat.
Posted on Dawn, October 3, 2019
Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1508702/inflation-jumps-114pc-in-september