The so-called Azadi March is finally underway in Islamabad. Directed by the head of JUI-F, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the protest march has already shocked the country's political landscape. It is the third major turmoil in the capital after the sieges of PTI and Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan. The last two achieved little but still aggravated chronic political instability in the country.
While a debate about the actors and influencers of previous agitation movements has eluded our political discourse, a new movement has emerged, which some consider a sequel to previous adventures, but with new faces. However, Maulana Fazlur Rehman has largely managed to corroborate the impression that this is her own independent movement.
No one can deny the need and importance of political stability, especially when the country faces a great economic challenge. But political stability cannot be manufactured artificially. Silencing the opposition or critical voices can delay chaos, but eventually creates a vacuum that extra-constitutional forces want to fill. The desire to eliminate political forces will not work in the long term.
Despite all the efforts made by the establishment to "manufacture" stability and give the impression of a harmonious civil-military relationship, the performance of the PTI government remains unimpressive. Good governance could have avoided the prevailing political uncertainty. Instead, the current history of governance has fueled public anger. Azadi March de la maulana has created a space for dissenting voices, and has even received unprecedented support from liberal segments of society.
An aspect of the Azadi March is the growing anti-establishment sentiment in the new generation of mothers.
In addition to theories about the real reasons for the march, and the probable support of sections of the establishment, the maulana has capitalized on some relevant factors that are the result of recent political developments. The first factor is the opposition divided and under pressure, the second is the weak performance of the government and the third constitutes the growing anti-establishment sentiment in the new generation of mothers.
Maulana Fazlur Rehman is considered the most pragmatic political leader in the country and, like any other leader, has the ability to maximize the advantages for his party in unfavorable environments. Although he and Prime Minister Imran Khan have a history of confrontation, and the maulana has also declared that the last elections were manipulated, he strives to take advantage of the weakness of the opposition led by the PPP and the PML-N to consolidate their own capital. politics.
The PML-N and the PPP, the two main opposition parties, have been under great pressure since the PTI government took over and are struggling to face the situation in their own way. The opposition bloc, led by Shahbaz Sharif, is trying to calm the pressure through non-confrontational approaches, which in his opinion is a pragmatic political approach. His pragmatism, at least, has created a space for his leader to lead the opposition from the front, especially when the government's performance is not satisfactory. But neither party has gained anything from its non-confrontational approach, which has provided the maulana with a perfect opportunity. However, it remains to be seen who will have the last laugh.
Since the last two general elections, the JUI-F has been building its political capital in an anti-establishment stance. Although it has not been very successful in turning this into electoral success, it has been based on its strategy to resonate with the growing anti-establishment sentiment in mothers. In recent years, the mothers have become an important force in Pakistani politics. Its expansion and influence are increasing in low to medium income groups, and the process is rapid in small towns and the peripheries of urban centers and provinces.
The Madrassah generations belong to the marginalized segments of society and geographic regions. Recent studies show that his feeling of grievance against an unequal distribution of resources is playing a fundamental role in his political awakening. Until recently, the direction of his anger remained largely oriented to sectarians, but as the tolerance of the state is decreasing and the space for sectarian and extremist groups is reduced in seminars, young mothers feel every once more attracted to political activism. For example, despite calls from prominent religious scholars in Deobandi not to participate in political activities, young mothers still join the Azadi March.
Jamaat-i-Islami also has the opportunity to capitalize on the growing anger between the lower middle classes and the mothers and mothers students, but the party is rapidly losing its strength due to its vague political policies. The JUI-F is the beneficiary of the calculation errors of the JI, in addition to its own groups and support base, cultivated through the Madrassah network. Therefore, the anti-establishment position of the JUI-F was to address the wrath of the Madrassah generation, which acquires a sense of determination through such activities. Maulana Fazlur Rehman has also assured them that he is the true custodian of the religious legacy of Deoband and the political legacy of the JUI parents.
He knew that he could capitalize on subnational feelings among the Pakhtun youth in the former tribal areas of KP, as well as in Baluchistan and Karachi, to drag them into the Azadi March. But it remains to be seen if it can make a dent in ethnic nationalist movements.
It can be argued that fertile ground already existed due to the errors of the establishment and the government of the PTI, and the maulana just took advantage of it. However, it is not clear what exactly he will achieve. His political profile may increase, but only a little, because until now Mian Nawaz Sharif is the undisputed leader who represents anti-establishment feelings. The upcoming events will reveal more, but the establishment and political forces still have some lessons to learn from the developing scenario.
The establishment has to understand that weak opposition cannot guarantee political stability; rather, it will create space for conservative religious holidays. Political parties, particularly in the opposition, have much to learn from this; First, they have to review their "pragmatic approach" with the focus on the public's pulse. If they really defend civil and parliamentary supremacy, they have to negotiate within themselves to increase their collective strength.
`The writer is a security analyst.
Posted in Dawn, November 3, 2019
Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1514598/maulanas-pragmatism