Sobering warnings from senior Israeli officials have revealed a grim paradox at the heart of the ongoing conflict with Iran. While urging Iranians to revolt, they believe that those who do so could be “massacred.”
Contradiction between private warnings and public calls
In a confidential assessment shared with the United States, Israeli officials said the Iranian regime was “uncracked” and ready to “fight to the end” despite continued military pressure, the Washington Post reported.
According to a U.S. State Department cable, Israeli officials told their American counterparts that any large-scale uprising in Iran would likely be suppressed with overwhelming force. The message was direct. If Iranians take to the streets in large numbers, “people will be massacred.”
The cable, distributed by the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, said Israel saw few immediate signs of an internal breakdown within Iran’s leadership.
IRGC ‘dominant’
At the center of this assessment is the strength of Iran’s internal security system. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, supported by Basij and others, appears to be firmly in control.
The regime has already shown its willingness to use force. Thousands of people have been killed in widespread anti-government protests earlier this year, sparked by economic hardship and political repression.
Israeli officials believe they will face a similar fate if there is another large-scale mobilization, giving the IRGC “superiority” on the ground.
Despite fears, Israel supports uprising
Despite this grim outlook, Israel has publicly called for an Iranian uprising.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised address as the offensive began that Israel would “strike hard against the terrorist regime” and create conditions for the “brave Iranian people” to liberate themselves. Similar appeals followed recently.
Israeli officials have privately gone further, urging the United States to be ready to support protesters if an uprising begins. Even though they acknowledge that human lives may be lost.
The dual message of calling for an uprising while predicting bloodshed reflects the strategic complexity of the conflict as Israel seeks to undermine Tehran’s leadership from within while continuing its military campaign.
The war is expanding and pressure on Iran is increasing.
The conflict has already resulted in U.S. and Israeli forces striking thousands of targets across Iran. This includes nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile stockpiles, police stations, and checkpoints operated by the Internal Security Department.
Nonetheless, Israel’s internal assessments suggest that the strikes have not yet shaken the core of Iran’s leadership. Israeli Minister Zeef Elkin said in a TV interview, “Every day we weaken this regime, we gain,” suggesting that military pressure itself is considered a success.
Trump acknowledges risk of genocide
US President Donald Trump also acknowledged the danger facing civilians.
“There are literally people on the streets with machine guns shooting down people who are trying to protest.” He said while acknowledging that unarmed protesters would fight such force.
The Trump administration’s position appears to have changed. There have previously been calls for the Iranians to “take over” the government, but officials now note that the United States is no longer actively seeking regime change.
A war with no clear end
Now three weeks have passed and the conflict shows no signs of abating. Iran’s military has taken a major hit, but its grip on power appears intact.
At the same time, global tensions are rising. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted a key energy route, driving up prices and sparking fears of a wider economic shock. Some U.S. allies have already rejected calls to deepen military intervention.
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