UFC 326 Best Betting Props, Parlays, and Picks

UFC 326 It airs live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada this weekend (Saturday, March 7, 2026) on Paramount+. This is the second PLE of the Paramount+ era and has a belt in the line.

The main event is Max Holloway big Charles Oliveira Holloway’s BMF titles are 2. He defended his novelty belt with a win for the first time. Dustin Poirier.

The co-main event of UFC 326 is Kaio Boralyu big rainier de reader In the middleweight division. Both men are coming off a loss and need a win here to start rebuilding their case for a potential title shot (it doesn’t look like the belt will be at stake anytime soon).

Also on the main card of UFC 326 rob font big Raul Rosas Jr., Drew Dover big michael johnson and Gregory Rodriguez big Bruno Pereira.

This weekend’s special ‘Preliminary’ Cody Garbrandt big Xiaolong. ‘Preliminaries’ also a hot prospect donte johnson meeting Cody Brundage and Sumudaerji meeting Jesus Aguilar.

As always, there’s a lot to bet on on this card and we’ve got odds for every fight below.

UFC 326 Main Card Moneyline Odds

Max Holloway (-230) vs. Charles Oliveira (+175)

holloway The last fight was his trilogy match. Dustin Poirier Last July. Holloway won comfortably, showing a speed and strength advantage over the retiring ‘Diamond’. The fight occurred 16 months after Holloway quit smoking. Ilya Topuria (Look here). His fight before that was his highlight to end all highlight wins. Justin Gaethje At UFC 300 (see it) here For the millionth time). ‘Blessed’ currently holds a 23-8 record in the UFC (27-8 overall).

Oliveira We are achieving an overwhelming victory Mateus Gamrot In Rio, he replaced his Polish challenger. here). Before that, I also smoked cigarettes. Ilya Topuria (Look here). And before that loss, ‘Do Bronx’ was starting to make a decision. michael chandler. He is 24-11, 1 NC in the UFC (36-11 overall).

The two first met at UFC Fight Night 74 in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan in 2015. The fight had barely begun before Oliveira went down with a strange injury (later described as an esophageal injury).

This is a really fun fight and I have real affection for these two guys and the way they fight. Their results have been pretty similar over the years and I think they’re both at roughly the same point in their careers. Right now, they’re made for the ‘legacy fight’, and that’s what this is.

My initial feeling is that this will look similar to Holloway vs. Poirier. Holloway may be landing more often and landing heavier than usual (probably because he’s a lightweight). Holloway’s late showing of KO power at this weight makes me think he can finish.

Oliveira will always boast about his skills, despite how much better he has been on the pitch against almost everyone except a select few (Islam Makhachev, Arman Charukyan… ). Oliveira rarely fights with the intention of engaging in a grappling contest. It seems to be used in emergencies. But against elite fighters (and as his age increases), he may no longer be conscious long enough to press the emergency button.

So I like Holloway in this match. I’m not completely afraid of financing with such odds, but there are better options.

Holloway -5.5 at -135 is very attractive to me. Because I think Holloway can finish. Oliveira Plus Points is +100.

Round total is 2.5. The over is -175 and the under is +135. I think Holloway will dictate the pace of this fight and I like it there because he’s a slow burn. I would choose the over as the best bet, even though the odds are shorter than the point spread. This way I’ll be prepared in case Oliveira surprises me.

Best bet: 2.5 rounds or more (-175)

Caio Borralho (-290) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+235)

Boral type After losing by unanimous decision, he lost his chance at UFC middleweight contender status. Nasordin Imabov In September. The loss snapped his 16-fight winning streak (seven of those wins came inside the Octagon). Before that loss, he made a decision. Jared Cannonier and fell down paul craig.

There were a lot of rumors around. derider Heading to his main event Brendan Allen In October. He won thanks to his decisions. Robert Whittaker and his finish Bonical (Look here) and Kevin Holland (Look here). But in the Allen fight he was dominant on the feet and on the ground and was gassing horribly (whether due to heart issues or damage we don’t know). He lost that fight due to retirement and looked like a broken man throughout the contest.

This moneyline from RDR created a lot of buzz. He actually opened at +180 and the only reason his odds are this long is because so much of the public is betting on Borralho. I’m with the public on this one.

I think Boralho is a bad matchup for De Rieder. Boralho is good on the ground and can handle himself on the feet as well. De Ridder has historically been very limited on his feet. His spectacular knees against Nickal and Whittaker are helping us a lot to forget that.

De Ridder has a slight size advantage over the Brazilian. He is taller and has a 3-inch reach. But I don’t know if he’s stronger. Borals are very sturdy.

I’m leaning Boralho here, but he’s short so I can’t get him to the moneyline. The point spread was interesting. Boralyu -3.5. At -135. Boralho came into the UFC like a concrete blanket. Remember. So, they are very good at tiring their opponents. If de Ridder’s fading on Allen is a sign of his condition, we could see de Ridder exhausted on the canvas and unable to put up much of a fight. This could result in a very lopsided scorecard or a late finish.

Round total is 2.5. The over is -188 and the under is +145. I like the over because Borralho is not an elite finisher. I’ll take it to protect myself in case de Ridder can get a round or two.

Best bet: 2.5 rounds or more (-188)

Rob Font (+180) vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (-218)

font He has been the gatekeeper at bantamweight for a while. During this mission, he closed doors on both sides. Kyler Phillips and Jin Matsumoto. David Martinez Still, I was able to sneak in. The veteran currently has 12 wins and 8 losses in UFC action.

Rosas Jr. He’s the latest man to clear the gate into the top ten. He has won four straight since falling to 5-1 in the UFC. Christian Rodriguez 2023. He had two finishes in that fight and a TKO over. Terrence Mitchell (Look here) and the rear naked choke is on. Ricky Tersios (Look here).

For how well Font battled most of the prospects he faced, and for how low I rated Rosas. top Prospect, this has me looking at the underdog here.

The biggest problem is whether the font can continue to stand up. Historically, he’s had a problem with that. His takedown defense is only 43%. Matsumoto knocked him down 7 times in 10 attempts. Phillips made four of his five attempts. Of course, Font won all those fights. But none of those opponents had the submission threat that Rosas Jr. had.

The font has only been submitted once in its career. it was a guillotine Pedro Munoz 2017. He turns 39 in three months. So that historical strength will probably be lost in a number of ways.

I think Font will still be good enough to get past the third round with Rosas Jr. And part of that is because Rosas Jr. has underperformed at times and given us some rather boring decisions, including his last two rounds. Vince Morales and Aori Kileng.

Over 2.5 rounds is -238. I would go the distance with the Fight to get a little more value.

Best bet: Fight to the end – Yes (-200)

Drew Dover (+102) vs. Michael Johnson (-122)

dover We finished with another win in October. Kyle Pripolek In the third round (see here). He took a beating early on and took a groin shot from Pripolek before sighing for victory. Before that, they had lost three games in a row. The most recent of which was a brutal KO. Manuel Torres (Look here), causing Dober to stagger like a zombie. His other losses include: Jean Silva and Renato Moicano. He is currently 14-11, 1 NC in the UFC, with 4 of his losses coming by K/TKO.

johnson He has won three straight, including a KO by his opponent. Ottoman Azaitar (Look here). In his final fight, he added his name to the growing list of losers. Daniel Zellhuber. His run began after his KO loss. Diego Pereira 2023. he was going to fight Alexander Hernández In January, the fight was canceled due to betting irregularities. There is nothing to indicate wrongdoing on Johnson’s part.

There’s no way this can lead to a decision, right? I guess it’s just a matter of guessing when someone will face plant it. Considering Dober’s recent performance, it seems more likely that he will be the one lying on the canvas, but we’ve seen Johnson go hungry several times before.

The round total is 1.5. I was surprised to see the under in plus money (+140). The over is -180. Other props used for this fight, which ends in an attack, are -195 exact way to win (KO/TKO) and -215 distance fighting.

I am torn between the Under and Johnson moneyline. For -160 there is an alternative round total available of less than 2.5 rounds. I’ll take it because I think Johnson has a better chance of finishing through accumulation rather than one big shot.

Best bet: Less than 2.5 rounds (-160)

Gregory Rodriguez (-198) vs. Bruno Pereira (+164)

Pereira I was going to fight Paulo Costa At this event. This is a booking that could be earned with a convincing win. Marvin Vettori (even though it is heavy). The Vettori win was Ferreira’s third successive win. He won the previous fight. Jackson McVay and Armen PetrosianWith an armbar. He is currently 6-2 in the UFC and 15-2 overall.

Ferreira joined the UFC after winning the 2022 Contender Series. His first proper fight with the promotion came the following year. Gregory Rodriguez Ferreira (a seven-fight UFC veteran at the time) won by first-round KO. here).

Rodriguez has gone 5-1 since that fight, with his only loss coming by fourth-round TKO. Jared Cannonier In his debut main event (see it here).

This is an interesting fight. Rodriguez likely took the opportunity to recoup his losses. And I think he might do it. After all, it’s hard to beat someone twice in MMA.

I think both players have improved since their first meeting. But I also think it’s more likely that Rodriguez will adjust this fight based on what happened there. Ferreira seems to fight in one mode: Tasmanian Devil mode. Rodriguez could switch things up and go for a more forward wrestler approach. Pereira is very good on the ground and in fact very good on the back, but I don’t think Rodriguez will be open for an armbar.

But no matter what happens, it will be fun. And I think the finish is coming. But this is by no means a shocking statement. Ferreira only made one decision. The final fight with Vettori. Rodriguez has picked up several decision wins recently. Roman Kopilov and Christian Leroy Duncan.

The round total is 1.5. I think that number is low considering Rodriguez’s durability and the way he held Pereira down early on. I’ll take charge.

Best bet: 1.5 rounds or more (-110)

UFC 326 ‘Preliminary’ Undercard Probability

Cody Garbrandt (+124) vs. Xiao Long (-148)

Garbrandt He won a unanimous decision and is currently on a two-fight losing streak. Raoni Barcelos Submitted last June Daveson Figueiredo The former bantamweight champion’s last win was a KO over. Brian Kelleher December 2023.

long wrestled by Sooyoung Yoo In the last fight last August. He was done before that. couen le With a hammerfist (see here). He is a Road to UFC veteran who competed in that feeder series in 2023.

Long was unlucky to lose to you. I scored for him, and so did several others. MMA decision.

I don’t know what’s wrong with Garbrandt. But I know I wouldn’t choose him. He turns 35 in July, which is not a good age to be in a lower weight class. The punishment he received in his career also makes him look much older than a ‘fighting bitch’.

Xiao is 27 years old and fights very aggressively and intensely. He also has some powers. His style would have been a burden to the best Garbrandt, but those days are gone.

Best bet: Xiaolong Moneyline (-148)

Donte Johnson (-600) vs. Cody Brundage (+440)

johnson He won his UFC debut in impressive fashion. Cedrice Dumas After about a minute (see? here). That was just a few months after his Contender Series match, which he won by first-round TKO. Up until the Dumas fight he was competing as a very small heavyweight, especially for Fury FC. He is currently 7-0.

I just saw it Brundage get a TKO Cam Rowston At UFC 325 last January. Before that he lost a split decision Eric McConico And fought to a draw Mansur Abdulmalik. These results have helped give him a 5-7-1 1 NC record in the UFC.

I like Johnson a lot and I like that he gave up on the idea of ​​being a 5’8” heavyweight. Alexander Volkanovski I’m fighting at middleweight.

Johnson is explosive and physical. But he also seems very smart and calm. I like how he told Connor in his debut to calm down and let it work. It was really lovely. That was also acceptable, considering he was fighting in a small camp. I think it would be a problem if he did that to Eric Nicksick.

I don’t know why Brundage is fighting here. His manager shouldn’t leave him in the fight as a huge underdog just months after he lost to another top prospect.

As of this writing, only Moneyline and Total Rounds are available. I’ll take it for some value and assume Johnson will be as patient as he was against Dumas (who he finished in the second round).

Best bet: 1.5 rounds or more (+150)

Ricky Tersios (+160) vs. Alberto Montes (-192)

previous TUF winner Tursios He is 2-3 in professional UFC competition. He lost a unanimous decision. Bernardo Sopause January 2025. His previous fights date back to June 2024. Raul Rosas Jr.. He was scheduled to compete at UFC 324 this January, but it was canceled due to a challenge from his opponent. Cameron SmothermanFace becomes stiff during weigh-in (show me) here).

montes At the Contender Series, he won via anaconda choke in October. He is a former Combate Global veteran with a 10-1 record.

Despite being a TUF winner, Turcios will likely be out of the UFC if he loses here. Turcios didn’t look bad in the Sopaj fight. He was very aggressive and energetic, although a bit rough.

Montes is a legit BJJ black belt and looks like an absolute terrorist on the ground, especially with the front choke. I think Turcios has suffered a lot from poor matchmaking in his career and this will be one of those instances again. Turcios is better than people give him credit for, but I think Montes will get him into a lot of trouble on the pitch.

And Turcios’ 44% takedown defense means he likely won’t be able to stop himself from falling to the ground.

Best Bet: Alberto Montes Moneyline (-192)

UFC 326 early ‘preliminaries’

Cody Durden (+114) vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (-135)

Durden We had 3 consecutive losses and 2 losses. The first decision of the series was unanimous. Joshua VanHe was beaten at every bell. After that he was removed Jose Ochoa (Look here), in his hometown. Most recently, he received training in the field and Alan Nascimento. He is currently 6-7-1 in the UFC. All of his other losses are due to disruption.

Tumendenberrell He went undefeated (3 wins) during the 2nd cycle of Road to UFC. But he lost his only proper UFC fight. Carlos Hernández. It was in November 2024. He was seen fighting as follows: Hyunseong Park and Rei Tsuruya I fell after that.

Durden should be fighting for his UFC life here.

He’s a good wrestler, but he got into trouble time and time again because he thought he had Canelo hands. I haven’t seen Tumendemberel enough to know if he has the hand to make Durden pay for sticking his chin out. Tumemdemberel seems to be much more focused on grappling. Durden’s lack of defense might change your mind.

I think the play is over if the odds of Durden being KOed are lower than usual (since these two can cancel each other out on the ground).

Best bet: 2.5 rounds or more (+110)

Sumudaerji (-245) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+200)

Sumudaerji We won two games in a row. The victory was a unanimous decision. Kevin Brojas And split decision Mitch Raposo. Before that, he made a decision. charles johnson. He is currently 5-4 in UFC action and 18-7 as a professional.

Aguilar His dominant decisions looked great. Louis Gurule In September. Before that he lost a unanimous decision to the still undefeated Raphael Estevam. He is 4-2 in the UFC and his other losses include: Taira Tatsuro. He once submitted to a local circuit. Edgar Chairez To defend the title.

With how great Aguilar looked in his last fight, I was initially surprised to see him being such a big underdog in this fight (especially considering how inconsistent Sumudaerji can be). However, I put the brakes on Aguilar a bit considering how deep Gurule has been in every UFC appearance. And there’s also the size factor.

Sumudaerji is a gangster and is four inches taller than Aguilar. He will have a reach advantage of as much as 10 inches. It could be a record difference. Aguilar’s reach is very short at 62 inches. His two UFC losses are to Estevam (69-inch reach) and Taira (70-inch reach). He took over a divided department. Mateus MendoncHowever (71 inches reach).

But Aguilar’s threat of submission gives me pause for thought. Remember how he won Stuart Nicole Guillotine is a big underdog? Six of Sumaerdaerji’s seven losses have all been by submission.

If Aguilar can grab Sumudaerji’s long neck and Tibetan Eagle can box up Aguilar with his feet with tremendous reach, I’d play the under here to cover both.

Best bet: Less than 2.5 rounds (+140)

Lee Jeong-young (+100) vs. Gaston Bolanos (-130)

Mr. Lee Coming at short notice to replace his compatriot Yoo Joo-sang. He’ll want to stop sliding by 2 o’clock. Last time he won a unanimous decision. Daniel Santos And before that he got kicked out by a Tekken style combo. Haider Amil (Look here).

BolanosI came to MMA late after doing Muay Thai. couen le By surrendering in his last fight (see here). Before that he got angry. Cortavius ​​Romius Win by decision. Bolanos was knocked out. Marcus McGee Second UFC appearance.

Mr. Lee has been looking a bit one-dimensional these days. It seemed like they wanted to argue. Bolanos are a bit more versatile. But last time, Le dominated him.

Lee will have a huge size advantage in this fight, being three inches taller and having four inches of reach. If he wants to swing for the fences, that could help him. I think Bolanos will duck under him and try for a takedown. It worked for Lee last time, with Santos stopping 6 of 18 attempts.

This is a bit of a coin flip. But I’m worried about how much damage Bolanos will suffer.

Best bet: Lee Jeong-young Moneyline (+100)

Luke Fernandez (-230) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (+190)

fernandes Won the October Contender Series in just 15 seconds. That saw him go 6-0. He was the champion of Cage Fury Fighting Championships. He has also won professional grappling. Phil Horse (Based on Anaconda) And Eric Anders. Although he is 30 years old, he has only competed professionally six times (he won them all).

bellato In the UFC, he completed a cycle of 4 fights, recording 1 win, 1 loss, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Before that, he was 1-1 in the Contender Series. That no contest was when he definitely faked it. paul craig Illegal upkick (see here). That Bellato isn’t blacklisted speaks volumes about how much Dana White cares about things at the moment.

Fernandez is a very interesting prospect with KO power and good grappling. I think he was given a matchup expected to win here. But I don’t think Bellato will be a complete walk in the park. He’s an odd duck, but he’s also a pretty versatile MMA fighter.

But Fernandes is my favorite player for a reason. I think he’ll give KOing Bellato a chance. Vitor Petrino). Fernandez’s ground skills mean he doesn’t have to rely solely on power punches, which makes him even more dangerous.

Best Bet: Luke Fernandez Moneyline (-230)

Rafael Tobias (-205) vs. Diyar Nurgozai (+170)

tobias He won the Contender Series via submission in September. This improved his professional record to 14 wins and 1 loss. Prior to the Contender Series, Tobias appeared in Fury Fighting Championships and fought once for LFA. The LFA fight was his only loss. he was knocked out Miguel Porto. At that time, he had just turned 20.

Nurgozai Although he was impressive on the Contender Series, the start to his UFC career was a nightmare. He missed weight for a proper debut and then Brenson Ribeiro (Currently 2-4 in the UFC). He was the -400 favorite for that fight. He then lost to Ezekiel Chok in the first round. Uran Sativaldiev (Look here).

This is an interesting match. Nurgozhay seems set to fail here. He has not been good at defending submissions in the past and is up against someone with nasty submissions. I think Nurgozai, who has been so dominant, will get beat up again, this time on his way out of the UFC gate.

Best Bet: Rafael Tobias Moneyline (-205)

Here are some long range photos of Saturday night’s action:

Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira – Last second finish (+4000)

This prop is used every time Holloway meets a fellow legend. I think there’s a good chance that Holloway will finish Oliveira before the last second of the fifth round. But if Oliveira is still fighting, I think we can expect Holloway to score his famous center goal with 10 seconds left. If that happens, I think I will be able to watch UFC 300 again.

However, this bet is actually for the penultimate finish of any round. So even if Oliveira gets a last second triangle or Holloway beats him against the cage for a standing TKO at the end of the round, we’re covered.

3-Bet Parlay: Jesus Aguilar, Alberto Montes, Rafael Tobias (+578)

I went with three guys who had a really cool submission game. Aguilar is the only underdog here. He’s done a good job as the underdog in the past, and Sumudaerji has tended to suffer submission losses. Montes and Tobias both have painful anaconda chokes and are favorites for their fights against Nugozhay and Turcios.

Gregory Rodriguez, 3rd round KO/TKO/DQ win (+2500)

I think RoboCop can get revenge on Ferreira. Ferreira carries a lot of extra weight in this division and saw him slow down and tire after Vettori took him deep. I think there is a possibility that he will be stopped if he gets tired in the third round against Rodriguez.

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