![\"\"](\"http:\/\/umang.pk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Revenue-shortfalls-in-spotlight-as-first-review-of-IMF-programme.jpg\" "\\"\\"")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
ISLAMABAD: Projecting an underlying inflation of 12.4 percent, a fiscal deficit of 7.4 percent and higher levels of debt despite better revenues in fiscal year 20, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) began talks on Monday with the Pakistani authorities on their first quarterly review of the $ 6 billion 39- monthly economic program.<\/p>\n
Informed sources said the IMF's visiting mission had preliminary discussions about the first quarter data (July-September) related to revenue collection, its breakdown and the reasons for the deficit of around Rs113bn.<\/p>\n
The two sides also discussed the reasons for tax refunds below the target. <\/p>\n
The Federal Revenue Board (FBR) informed the mission that technical problems causing delays in refunds have been eliminated by replacing tax forms and the relevant data interface for entry and exit calculations.<\/p>\n
The IMF mission raised questions about income integration between federal and provincial tax systems and authorities. The mission said a draft agreement for the single return form and the single revenue portal was shared with the provinces, an informed source said. <\/p>\n
Another official explained that, in fact, some provinces rejected the draft and linked their signature to the elimination of their concerns.<\/p>\n
\nThe Fund forecasts that CPI inflation will increase by 5.7 percentage points<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
The two sides also referred to revenue projections until December of this year, based on the performance of the first quarter and how deficiencies were addressed. <\/p>\n
The two sides will continue to be involved in discussions at the technical level and exchange of data from all economic sectors until this weekend and then the policy level discussions will be led by the Prime Minister's Advisor on Finance and Income, Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh.<\/p>\n
The review talks coincided with the launch of the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook (REO 2019) in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAP) region. Prospects estimate that Pakistan's consumer price index will increase from 7.3pc in 2019 to 13pc in 2020. It put the central CPI up to 12.4pc in 2020 from 8.3pc in 2019.<\/p>\n
The fund estimated that net loans would be slightly reduced to 8.4pc of GDP in 2020 compared to 8.9pc in 2019 and the fiscal deficit decreased to 7.4pc of GDP in 2020 versus 8.8pc in 2019.<\/p>\n
This was despite the fact that it is estimated that general government revenues will improve to 16.1 percent of GDP in 2020 from 12.7 percent in 2019. This would be partly explained by the increase in public spending and net loans to 23.6 percent. percent of GDP in 2020 of 21.6 percent. in 2019<\/p>\n
On the other hand, it is also projected that total gross public debt will increase from 76.7 percent in 2019 to 78.6 percent of GDP in 2020. It is also estimated that net public debt will increase from 72.5 percent of GDP to 75.2 percent. From this, gross foreign debt is forecast to reach 43.7 percent of GDP in 2020 from 38.1 percent in 2019.<\/p>\n
The IMF predicted that Pakistan's exports will increase to $ 32.5 billion in 2020 from $ 30.2 billion in 2019, while imports will be reduced to $ 59.5 billion next year from $ 62.9 billion this year compared to $ 67.8 one billion in 2018.<\/p>\n
The current account deficit has been projected at 2.6 percent of GDP in 2020 compared to 4.5 percent in 2019 and 5.4 percent in 2018. Gross official reserves would generally remain in the existing band or $ 25.9 billion in 2020 against $ 25 billion in 2019 and $ 24 billion in 2018. <\/p>\n
Exchange coverage, on the other hand, would improve to 2.2 months of imports in 2020 compared to 1.4 months in 2019 and 1.9 months in 2018.<\/p>\n
The IMF advised oil-importing countries to increase growth and accelerate structural reforms to attract investments, including direct foreign investment and achieve fiscal consolidation favorable to growth, strengthen the business environment and increase inclusion.<\/p>\n
He said that growth in oil-importing countries in the MENAP region is expected to be reduced in the coming years. High levels of public debt and associated financial costs are not only slowing growth in the region, but they have also become a source of acute fiscal stress.<\/p>\n
However, a combination of sustained social tensions, unemployment and global counter winds make policy makers face a difficult trade-off between the reconstruction of fiscal buffers and the resolution of growth challenges. For now, favorable global financial conditions and lower oil prices are helping to ease this compensation. However, managing high levels of public debt will require fiscal consolidation and policies to achieve higher and more inclusive growth.<\/p>\n
Real GDP growth in MENAP oil importers is expected to decrease slightly in 2019 to 3.6pc, below 4.3pc in 2018, mainly due to declines in Pakistan and Sudan. <\/p>\n
Excluding these two countries, the rest of the region's real GDP growth in 2019 is projected to be 4.4 percent. In Egypt, growth will remain strong, supported by gas production and the return of tourism. However, in general, growth in most countries is expected to be below their 2000-15 average.<\/p>\n
In 2020, real GDP growth in the region will remain at around 3.7 percent, but will recover at 5 percent in the medium term. The decline is largely driven by Pakistan, where ongoing reforms are expected to drive growth. However, this perspective implies that the region lags behind other countries with similar income levels.<\/p>\n
Inflationary pressures have been kept at bay by weak internal and external demand. Egypt, Pakistan, Sudan and Tunisia are notable exceptions where, at different times in the last three years, depreciation of the exchange rate, while helping to reduce external imbalances, has contributed to increasing inflation.<\/p>\n
Posted on Dawn, October 29, 2019<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/pre>\n<\/pre>\n
Source: https:\/\/www.dawn.com\/news\/1513516\/revenue-shortfalls-in-spotlight-as-first-review-of-imf-programme-kicks-off<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ISLAMABAD: Projecting an underlying inflation of 12.4 percent, a fiscal deficit of 7.4 percent and higher levels of debt despite better revenues in fiscal year 20, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) began talks on Monday with the Pakistani authorities on their first quarterly review of the $ 6 billion 39- monthly economic program. Informed sources […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10778,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[11077],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newspaper"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/umang.pk\/ur\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10777","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/umang.pk\/ur\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/umang.pk\/ur\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/umang.pk\/ur\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/umang.pk\/ur\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10777"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/umang.pk\/ur\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10777\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/umang.pk\/ur\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/umang.pk\/ur\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/umang.pk\/ur\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/umang.pk\/ur\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}